As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 5% probability that the answer to “When will the next US recession start?” is “Q4 2025”. 6 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Q1 2026”: If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed). Resolved using NBER.
