As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 3% probability that the 51st state is any part of Cuba before Jan 20, 2029. 8 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Cuba”: If the 51st state is any part of Cuba before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Library of Congress.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 8 outcomes. “Cuba” leads at 3%, down from 4% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Canada”, is at 2%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
