As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 2% probability that the answer to “Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?” is Yes. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If a Category 4 or higher hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Florida Keys) between October 6, 2026 at 11:15:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes. The hurricane's center must cross the specified coastline at the qualifying intensity. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 2%, up from 1% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
