As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 84% probability that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028. 4 outcomes · resolves Mar 31, 2028.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “New Hampshire”: If New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National Committee sanctions, recognizes, or gives delegate effect to it. If multiple states vote on the same day, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of tied states. Resolved using The Verge, ABC and Fox News.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “New Hampshire” leads at 84%, down from 86% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Iowa”, is at 10%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Mar 31, 2028.
