As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 26% probability that Xi Jinping has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030. 4 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before 2030”: If Xi Jinping has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Physical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and The Wall Street Journal.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “Before 2030” leads at 26%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before 2029”, is at 16%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2030.
