As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 51% probability that Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2028”: If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Resolved using Deutsche Welle, The Guardian and BBC News.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. “Before Jan 1, 2028” leads at 51%, down from 52% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Before Jan 1, 2027”, is at 18%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2027.
