As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 94% probability that the number of people who have served as Speaker of the House during 2026 is exactly 1. 3 outcomes · resolves Jan 8, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Exactly 1”: If the number of people who have served as Speaker of the House during 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes. "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official capacity, whether by appointment, election, succession, or acting designation, and performed the duties of that role for any length of time during the time period. Resolved using Fox News, White House and The Wall Street Journal.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 3 outcomes. “Exactly 1” leads at 94%, up from 92% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Exactly 2”, is at 4%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 8, 2027.
