As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 52% probability that U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $300 billion. 5 outcomes · resolves Feb 4, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Below $300 billion”: If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $300 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “Below $300 billion” leads at 52%, down from 64% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Below $280 billion”, is at 28%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Feb 4, 2027.
