As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 54% probability that Cushman & Wakefield reports that Manhattan’s overall office vacancy rate for Q4 2026 is below 18.0%. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
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If Cushman & Wakefield reports that Manhattan’s overall office vacancy rate for Q4 2026 is below 18.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Manhattan overall vacancy rate reported in Cushman & Wakefield’s Q4 2026 Manhattan Office MarketBeat, covering the overall Manhattan office market. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. For reference, the same metric was 21.1% in Q4 2025, 19.9% in Q1 2026, and 19.3% in Q2 2026. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 54%, unchanged from a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 31, 2027.
