As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 95% probability that USDA NASS reports that Arkansas broiler production for 2026 is above 7.6 billion pounds. 5 outcomes · resolves Apr 30, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 7.6 billion pounds”: If USDA NASS reports that Arkansas broiler production for 2026 is above 7.6 billion pounds, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is Arkansas broiler live-weight production, measured in pounds, in USDA NASS’s 2026 annual estimate. Importantly, the USDA-defined 2026 production period runs December 1, 2025 through November 30, 2026, rather than the calendar year. Broiler production includes other domestic meat-type strains. Resolution uses the first published 2026 annual estimate; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “Above 7.6 billion pounds” leads at 95%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 7.8 billion pounds”, is at 85%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Apr 30, 2027.
