As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 99% probability that the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 3.50%. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 4, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 3.50%”: If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “Above 3.50%” leads at 99%, up from 98% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 3.75%”, is at 99%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 4, 2027.
