As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 33% probability that any man officially breaks (not ties) the outdoor track & field world record for the Men's Marathon and in 2026. 10 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Men's Marathon”: If any man officially breaks (not ties) the outdoor track & field world record for the Men's Marathon after Issuance and in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification: This market resolves based on whether a legal time is recorded that breaks the current outdoor track & field world record for the Men's Marathon. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the world record is ultimately ratified. Resolved using World Athletics.
This Sports market on OpinionKings has 10 outcomes. “Men's Marathon” leads at 33%, up from 27% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Men's 5km”, is at 5%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
