As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 3% probability that any independent or third-party candidate wins an election for the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate in 2026. 2 outcomes · resolves Nov 3, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If any independent or third-party candidate wins an election for the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, any candidate that is not officially affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered independent or third party, regardless of whether they join a party’s caucus or conference after the election. For example, Senator Bernie Sanders would be considered an independent candidate.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 3%, down from 10% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Nov 3, 2027.
