As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 100% probability that the answer to “Maine Senate margin of victory” is “Jackson, 5+ pts”. 23 outcomes · resolves Nov 3, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Jackson, 1+ pts”: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. For this ranked-choice election, vote percentages are those in the final round of the ranked-choice tabulation in the certified results. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
