As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 97% probability that US trade deficit for 2026 is above 170 billion. 12 outcomes · resolves Feb 28, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 170 billion”: If US trade deficit for 2026 is above 170 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 12 outcomes. “Above 170 billion” leads at 97%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “119.6 billion to 119.9 billion”, is at 6%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Feb 28, 2027.
