As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 1% probability that the answer to “2026: Trump's bad year?” is Yes. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. Resolved using Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 1%, down from 4% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2027.
