As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 10% probability that Israel and Belize normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027. 11 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Belize”: If Israel and Belize normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion. Resolved using The New York Times.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 11 outcomes. “Belize” leads at 10%, down from 17% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Mauritania”, is at 10%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
