As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 38% probability that legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export has become law before Jan 1, 2027. 30 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Export-control chip security”: If legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification: 'FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)' (KXBILLS-FISA) resolves to Yes only if FISA Section 702 is reauthorized for exactly two years, as in the provided example (Public Law 118-49). A reauthorization for any other duration would not qualify. Resolved using White House and Library of Congress.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 30 outcomes. “Export-control chip security” leads at 38%, down from 44% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “AI-chip export licensing”, is at 22%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
