As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 57% probability that United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2031.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “United States”: If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States. Resolved using The New York Times.
This Science and Technology market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “United States” leads at 57%, up from 56% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “China”, is at 36%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2031.
