As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 87% probability that Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve before Jan 21, 2029. 2 outcomes · resolves Jan 21, 2029.
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If Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. Resolved using White House and New York Times.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 87%, up from 85% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 21, 2029.
