As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 99% probability that the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Josh Shapiro in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania is 84% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints. 11 outcomes · resolves Nov 3, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 84%”: If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Josh Shapiro in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania is 84% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places (2). Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results.
This Elections market on OpinionKings has 11 outcomes. “At least 84%” leads at 99%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 86%”, is at 90%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Nov 3, 2027.
