As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 13% probability that the answer to “Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?” is “Before Jan 20, 2029”. 3 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 20, 2029”: If, as part of Section IV of the 25th Amendment, the Vice President (and a majority of the Cabinet or some other body designated by Congress) transmit to Congress a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using The New York Times.
