As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 44% probability that the next new Secretary of State before Jan 20, 2029 is no other person. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 20, 2029.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “No other person”: If the next new Secretary of State before Jan 20, 2029 is no other person, then the market resolves to Yes. Acting and Interim positions don't count. Resolved using ABC, Fox News and MSNBC.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “No other person” leads at 44%, down from 56% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Bill Hagerty”, is at 21%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 20, 2029.
