As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 77% probability that the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in calendar year 2026 is strictly above 1,400 units. 13 outcomes · resolves May 3, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 1,400 units”: If the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in calendar year 2026 is strictly above 1,400 units, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont, across all structure types. Resolution will use the first finalized annual 2026 figure published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Preliminary monthly and year-to-date estimates will not determine the market. Resolved using Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 13 outcomes. “Above 1,400 units” leads at 77%, down from 90% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 1,600 units”, is at 64%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes May 3, 2027.
