As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 6% probability that any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027. 2 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
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If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. Resolved using Deutsche Welle, The Guardian and BBC News.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 2 outcomes. The chance of Yes is 6%, down from 8% a week ago. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 31, 2026.
