As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 95% probability that the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below $5.70, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive. 12 outcomes · resolves Dec 30, 2026.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Below $5.70”: If the AAA national average price for diesel for the US in 2026 is below $5.70, at any time from Issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive then the market resolves to Yes. This is a touch market. If AAA publishes a qualifying value at any point during the measurement period, the applicable market may close and resolve to Yes early. Resolved using AAA.
This Economics market on OpinionKings has 12 outcomes. “Below $5.70” leads at 95%, up from 33% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Below $5.30”, is at 23%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Dec 30, 2026.
