As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 45% probability that Alexandre de Moraes leaves as Justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before Jan 1, 2028. 3 outcomes · resolves Dec 31, 2027.
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Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Before Jan 1, 2028”: If Alexandre de Moraes leaves as Justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Alexandre de Moraes must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. Resolved using Supremo Tribunal Federal.
