As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 84% probability that the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold is above 10% in Jan 2030. 4 outcomes · resolves May 1, 2030.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “Above 10%”: If the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold is above 10% in Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolved using Argonne National Laboratory.
This Climate and Weather market on OpinionKings has 4 outcomes. “Above 10%” leads at 84%, unchanged from a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “Above 20%”, is at 65%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes May 1, 2030.
