As of Nov 11, 2026, OpinionKings traders give a 33% probability that President Trump vetoes at least 5 bills or resolutions before Jan 1, 2027. 5 outcomes · resolves Jan 1, 2027.
1. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each upon market resolution; all others settle at $0.00.
2. Trades execute at the current market price unless a limit order is placed.
3. Limit orders remain active until filled, cancelled, or the market closes.
4. Shares can be sold any time before the market closes.
5. Markets may be suspended or cancelled for ambiguous outcomes.
6. All balances and positions are denominated in USD.
Each outcome settles on its own terms. For “At least 5”: If President Trump vetoes at least 5 bills or resolutions before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A “pocket veto” is encompassed within the Payout Criterion. Resolved using White House, United States Congress and The New York Times.
This Politics market on OpinionKings has 5 outcomes. “At least 5” leads at 33%, up from 7% a week ago. The next most likely outcome, “At least 1”, is at 27%. Each price is the probability traders currently assign to that outcome, and it moves as they buy and sell. Trading closes Jan 1, 2027.
